Average Gill, and What Gill Average?

Fundamental change of White Ball mentality required by SA?

India’s captain Shubman Gill and KL Rahul have already taken giant strides towards saving the fourth Test against England at Old Trafford and keeping the series alive for the fifth match at the Oval next week and it would appear that Manchester’s capricious weather might offer them a helping hand on the fifth day on Sunday.

Coming together at 0-2 after five balls after conceding a first innings deficit of 311 wasn’t ideal for the tourists but batting 62 overs to take the total to 174-2 was well above average. Speaking of which…

Gill was averaging 35.05 after 32 Tests going into the series, which is rank ordinary for a batsman with such obvious talent. He was in danger of remaining a serial under-achiever based on the number by which we so readily judge players, their average. Only one batsman in Test history with a lower average after 32 Tests has finished their career with an average over 40: Chris Gayle whose final number was 42.18. Gill's soared to 42.72 after the 2nd Test having scored a remarkable 585 runs at Headingly and Edgbaston.

He failed twice at Lord’s but, having ‘repaired’ the lens through which he will be perceived and remembered in just two matches, history suggests it’s unlikely to deviate downwards until the end of his career and may well climb higher in the next few years.

Jacques Kallis fought doggedly to elevate his average into the 40s, not motivated by personal or selfish ambition but by the incessant media clamour for any SA batsman to average in the 40s against an Australian team which had four averaging over 50. The ‘average bug’ bit him and remained for all-but the last two years of his career when he finally played with the freedom which might have produced a very different career in a less brittle batting line-up.

In September 2001 South Africa played Zimbabwe in a two-Test series. Kallis averaged 41.00 before the tour. Respect as appropriate to home side, he could have butchered the bowling attack on flat pitches in Harare and Bulawayo. Instead, he respectfully helped himself to a gentle 388 runs without being dismissed which took his average up to 46.97, within touching distance of 50+ greatness. It took a lot more work to get there, but he barely took a backward step thereafter.

Wiaan Mulder’s batting average jumped from 26.20 to 38.43 with his unbeaten 367 against Zimbabwe at Queen’s Sports Club in Bulawayo a couple of weeks ago. In commentary box dialect, that’s a shift from ‘bowler who can bat’ to ‘possibly the best genuine all rounder in the game today.’

Mulder is the only player who has increased his batting average by more than 10 having previously played at least 30 innings. In one, admittedly extraordinary innings, he leapt at least four rungs of the judgement ladder from ‘bits and pieces’ to ‘great’. Based on averages. Doubt me? Of course you do, and rightly. But – there is no player in Test cricket history with 1000+ runs and 20+ wickets who has a higher batting average and a lower batting average than Mulder, currently.

Bowlers, it seems, find it harder to effect radical change to career averages with dramatic performances. I wondered, for example, what effect the greatest Test match performance of all time – 19-90 – had on off-spinner Jim Laker’s career. There was only one man to ask: Andrew Samson, aka ‘The Wizz’.

“Laker had 106 wickets in 19 Tests at 25.09 before his 19-90. His average dropped to 22.00 after the game. He is the only bowler with 100+ wickets going into a match to drop his average by three or more in Test cricket,” informed the Wizz.

Actually, all of the stats above are courtesy of The Wizz. Not for the first time, I had tickled his curiosity with the thought of one-off, ‘reputation-changing’ series, or even single matches. He’s doing his own ‘deep-dive’ on the subject on ‘The Notcher’s Natter’, also on SubStack. Brilliant reading for those tickled by the weird and wonderful world of cricket stats. Well worth a follow, and a modest subscription if you’re able.

And finally, the Proteas needed seven runs to win from the final over to beat New Zealand in the final of their T20I Triangular series in Harare. They managed just four and lost by three runs. As always, the focus was on the finish line rather than the start. Choke, blah blah.

T20 cricket is decided more and more on fast starts. South Africa cricket’s obsession with ‘measured’ beginnings and the ‘pacing’ of innings is passe. It started as an anti-dote to choking. Be calm, don’t panic. We’ll catch up. It has now become the precursor to choking. No team can afford to have two senior players scoring at a run-a-ball in the top three and expect to win against major opposition. It just doesn’t work like that anymore.