Not a Matter of Life and Death...

But Cricket may have changed forever on May 9

“Shock” and “Fear” were the opening two words of the replies I received from two friends and colleagues in India and Pakistan when I sent a message to them enquiring about the ‘mood’ in both country’s cricket tournaments after the news that the IPL and PSL had been ‘postponed.’

It’s a silly question, really. The ‘mood’ of a tournament? But I’ve known them both for over 25 years and they knew what I meant. Is it real? I’ve been in tricky situations in Zimbabwe (political), Sri Lanka (car-bombs) and Pakistan (security) where, within the confines of a hotel, the reality still feels distant. But, evidently, for the playing and broadcast teams in both countries, it was a visceral reality.

The rhetoric has been inflammatory from both governments, which is understandable – it’s what politicians believe their people want to hear. But it has also been coming from cricketers, past and present. Perhaps they, too, feel the need to give the people what they want to hear. Hopefully their words and the use of their platforms are not for their own profile and benefit.

There is a chance that May 9, 2025, could be day upon which international cricket changed forever. Considerably more important is the possibility that a full-on war ensues with the possibility/likelihood of many thousands of deaths and casualties. But this is a cricket column so let’s stick with the trivial and mundane. Money.

There are billions of dollars at stake, naturally, but the impact of that lost money won’t just be felt by India and Pakistan after the suspension of the IPL and PSL. Or by Australia and England and the other Test-playing nations. It will be noticed by age-group cricketers and even club cricketers around the world. It will be felt by everyone involved in the sport.

It is widely understood that income from bilateral tours by the Indian men’s team keeps the other Test-playing nations financially afloat. But income from ICC global events also plays a critical role in the sports budget in every single one of the ICC’s member countries. You wouldn’t suppose that Japan is currently hosting Thailand and the Cook Islands based on ticket sales or television revenue, or that the Asia Qualifier for the next Women’s T20 World Cup involving the UAE, Qatar, Thailand and Bhutan is self-funding.

The ICC distributes funding to over 100 nations with the smallest making do with less than $300k a year to run a barebones operation. The big nations receive tens of millions. Now, bear in mind that just over 10% of the ICC’s entire income is derived from a single fixture, albeit one played three times in every four-year at the two World Cups and the Champions Trophy. It is the only reason the Champions Trophy was revived. India vs Pakistan.

That fixture is the most ‘valuable’ in all of sport and subsidises all of the others; it is the reason broadcasters are prepared to pay billions of dollars for ICC rights. So, losing it does not equate to losing 10% of the fee for the next rights cycle. Expert estimates suggest a 30% drop is a minimum and it could be as much as 50%.

No country in the world (except India) can survive that sort of decrease in ICC income without a radical restructuring of their domestic cricket and, while cuts at the top will be necessary, it’s at the bottom of the pyramid where most will be made. Massive reductions in subsidies for first-class teams and, as for development programmes in schools and assistance for Clubs and Disability cricket, forget it.

My friends, meanwhile, have had very different experiences in the last 24 hours. The one involved with an IPL franchise landed back in South Africa via Dubai on Saturday having been given just a couple of hours to pack. The other, part of the broadcast team at the PSL, remains stuck in Multan: “The charter flight to Dubai was cancelled,” he messaged. “We’re told Aviation authorities have closed down all Pakistan air-space after more drone attacks in Kashmir and other areas…At least we’re about 500 km away from the most volatile areas.”

Even if a miraculous cease-fire takes place, and holds, it seems that cricket matches between India and Pakistan won’t take place for…who knows. A decade. More? Which would mean cricket having to reinvent itself around the world, less dependant but also less ambitious. Still focussed on revenue but, perhaps, not exclusively. Quite a thought.