Wrong Balance in Trinidad...

But Maybe the Gamble will work

    It’s already too late to avoid accusations of ‘smartarse after the event’ but what should have been said 24 hours ago can still be said now, hopefully still with credibility. When Shukri Conrad announced South Africa’s starting XI for the first Test against the West Indies 24-hours before the match started, it may well have been the least balanced XI and greatest gamble in the last 30 years.

    In conditions that Conrad himself admitted would generate ‘attritional’ cricket, in which bowlers would have to work much harder than batsmen for their rewards, he selected just four. Including the excellent Lungi Ngidi, as likely to produce an explosive burst of wickets as he is to limp off with yet another niggle. Or worse.

    Also amongst the four specialist bowlers was Wiaan Mulder, an admittedly skilled medium paced swing bowler who regards himself (and is at the Lions) a top-five batsman who ‘contributes’ with the ball. So,we’re pretty much down to three and a half bowlers.

    The inclusion of Ryan Rickelton as the sixth specialist batsman in the starting XI was the result of an age-old phenomenon: “He’s too good to leave out at the moment.” Which was correct. His form and results have been compelling for over two years. So, who to leave out from the top six? Nobody.

    Aidan Markram and Tony de Zorzi are Conrad ‘certs’ and the coach (and sole selector) bombastically committed himself to Tristan Stubbs at number three. Temba Bavuma is the captain at four and David Bedingham, the best of all of them, at number five, so six was the only spot available for Rickelton.

    Which leaves a man (Kyle Verreynne) with a first-class average of 50 batting at number seven and Mulder, wasted and floundering, at number eight. The vast majority of 20 wickets will have to be taken by Kagiso Rabada and Keshav Maharaj, assisted, hopefully with health and body permitting, by Ngidi.

    Even 25 years ago, when South Africa often selected just four specialist bowlers, they included Craig Matthews and/or Fanie de Villiers who could bowl 25 overs a day through a brick wall if necessary. And they always had Hansie Cronje’s respectable and curmudgeonly medium pace to rely on in emergency.

    The current Proteas team don’t have the luxury of playing Test series for the sake of the format, because people love it. They are playing it for its life. They need to win, a lot. And often. Never mind the weather, they need to win in Trinidad. They have entered the contest with batsmen averaging 50 and 45 in first-class cricket at numbers seven and eight. And three frontline bowlers. With respect to Mulder. And Ngidi’s fitness record.

    Gambles are to be congratulated in sport. Doing something radical and unexpected in pursuit of victory, whether it works or not, is laudable. But South Africa probably need to win seven of their remaining eight Tests in the current World Test Championship cycle to reach the final. An extra bowler, in off-spinner Dane Piedt or left arm bomber, Nandre Burger, would surely have been the more positive option?

    The reason I’m writing this now, after the first day’s washout at the Queen’s Park Oval in Port-of-Spain, Trinidad, is not just to revoke the smartarse accusations, but to encourage them. Nobody could be happier than me to see my concerns diminished and ridiculed. And for Conrad’s gamble to pay off.

    I’m just about old enough to remember the days when selecting an ‘extra batsman’ was considered prudent in order to avoid defeat, or at least lessen its likelihood. Those days are gone. Victories are essential, and many of them. Defeats will mean far more than just the result.