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Mike's avatar

All good - current comms thinks India might declare tonite.

Betting markets suggest they won't. I feel they will set 450 in 80, unless the weather overnight

makes them declare at the start of day 5.

At India 327-3 net,

India 55% chance to win

Draw 35%

Eng 10%

After the Galle draw, and Colombo draw already priced at 40% chance, we might see 3 draws in a row - after literally only 1 draw in the last 30 games.

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Mike's avatar

Hi Neil,

Enjoying your test comms but your understanding of betting terminology needs some work. Twice you have referred to the draw price as being 4/1 on (four to one on), as opposed to just 4/1 (against) - the against is v rarely used.

4/1 on means you are betting 400 to win 100 plus your stake if it was a draw.

4/1 against means betting 100 to win 400 plus your stake if it was a draw.

In probability terms, one is 20%, one is 80%, and for the professional gamblers listening it’s very different .

Hope you have learnt something - I in know it’s far from simple if you not an active gambler.

The current draw price is 4/1 against. The lowest point it has touched all game so far is 6/4, - about 40% implied chance

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