Enjoying your test comms but your understanding of betting terminology needs some work. Twice you have referred to the draw price as being 4/1 on (four to one on), as opposed to just 4/1 (against) - the against is v rarely used.
4/1 on means you are betting 400 to win 100 plus your stake if it was a draw.
4/1 against means betting 100 to win 400 plus your stake if it was a draw.
In probability terms, one is 20%, one is 80%, and for the professional gamblers listening it’s very different .
Hope you have learnt something - I in know it’s far from simple if you not an active gambler.
The current draw price is 4/1 against. The lowest point it has touched all game so far is 6/4, - about 40% implied chance
Hi Mike, your feedback is always appreciated - and I really have learned a lot from you! I knew as I said it that I'd got "4-1 on" wrong when I said you could quadruple your money...! But then the next ball was about to be bowled and I forgot to correct myself. Anyway, it seems the bookmakers knew what they were talking about when they had India as favourites at the start of the day. They usually do, of course...
Not just passive support, though - we need 'active' support. As in - suggestions and actions to improve a very imperfect tournament. We need to knock the WTC into a shape and format which is easily recognisable to cricket followers around the world. There will always be imperfections and compromises, but at least we could bring the number of games played by each team a little closer together. I'm in favour of four-day Tests in certain countries and between certain teams, like South Africa. Tests almost never go to five days in SA...
All good - current comms thinks India might declare tonite.
Betting markets suggest they won't. I feel they will set 450 in 80, unless the weather overnight
makes them declare at the start of day 5.
At India 327-3 net,
India 55% chance to win
Draw 35%
Eng 10%
After the Galle draw, and Colombo draw already priced at 40% chance, we might see 3 draws in a row - after literally only 1 draw in the last 30 games.
Hi Neil,
Enjoying your test comms but your understanding of betting terminology needs some work. Twice you have referred to the draw price as being 4/1 on (four to one on), as opposed to just 4/1 (against) - the against is v rarely used.
4/1 on means you are betting 400 to win 100 plus your stake if it was a draw.
4/1 against means betting 100 to win 400 plus your stake if it was a draw.
In probability terms, one is 20%, one is 80%, and for the professional gamblers listening it’s very different .
Hope you have learnt something - I in know it’s far from simple if you not an active gambler.
The current draw price is 4/1 against. The lowest point it has touched all game so far is 6/4, - about 40% implied chance
Hi Mike, your feedback is always appreciated - and I really have learned a lot from you! I knew as I said it that I'd got "4-1 on" wrong when I said you could quadruple your money...! But then the next ball was about to be bowled and I forgot to correct myself. Anyway, it seems the bookmakers knew what they were talking about when they had India as favourites at the start of the day. They usually do, of course...
I love the dream of what the World Test Championship could be in the future.
To get there we need everyone, including people like Stokes to support that dream.
Hi Nic,
Not just passive support, though - we need 'active' support. As in - suggestions and actions to improve a very imperfect tournament. We need to knock the WTC into a shape and format which is easily recognisable to cricket followers around the world. There will always be imperfections and compromises, but at least we could bring the number of games played by each team a little closer together. I'm in favour of four-day Tests in certain countries and between certain teams, like South Africa. Tests almost never go to five days in SA...
Great background info as always Neil.