The numbers I was referring to were from Betfair, the main exchange in the UK.
The have skins - which are their prices rebranded under another betting companies name in countries where Betfair isn't allowed, and they may or may not feed liquidity through to the UK.
The informal black market in India is estimated to be three times the size of the UK's official market.
I find the betting markets give very reliable estimates of who is winning, unlike the various tools used by TV companies, which are pure fiction (WinVizz etc)
Day 3 volume got pretty decent. I think the final totals were about 65m GBP traded in the UK - but would have to check. Paltry really - the Scotland v Netherlands T20 just finished traded 35m GBP.
I watched all of Day 1 (without TV comms) - here are some betting market-related facts.
SA was only the favourite to win the game for a few seconds as the Australian innings ended.
They are now back to about the same implied chance of winning as before the game started - around 35%.
The amount traded on this match, Day 1 , was 20m GBP, which for a test match is pretty good, but highlights the pecking order in gambling interest. The IPL final (40 overs), traded 150m GBP and the qualifier traded a record 260m GBP.
I think this will be over in 3-4 days. The bowlers did well, but it didn't work out for the batters this time. Maybe they can score on day 2, but the current expectation is about 178.
I found this fascinating, Mike, as I always do. Increased by my ignorance on the subject. Which market are you referring to? The UK market, I guess... given that the Indian market is 'informal'. Or is it?
I feel like Australia are underdogs now following the first day. It’s good to see cricket which puts pressure on batting though, after seeing too many T20 slogging contests over the past few months.
Hi Jonathan, I should have replied after day one but I'm a bit superstitious so didn't want to jinx anything. And the fact that I was finishing work two hours after each day's play and then travelling an hour back to beautiful Barnes, my home for the duration of the Test.
There is a skin of Betfair run from Cape Town, as Betfair is Illegal in SA.
There were a couple of others - but the biggest issue with these sites is deposits and withdrawals. A lot if done in cash or crypto.
There is now a crypto betting company is SA - thou I haven't used them. 10bet.co.za
Business finds ways to evade laws etc
Hi Neil,
The numbers I was referring to were from Betfair, the main exchange in the UK.
The have skins - which are their prices rebranded under another betting companies name in countries where Betfair isn't allowed, and they may or may not feed liquidity through to the UK.
The informal black market in India is estimated to be three times the size of the UK's official market.
I find the betting markets give very reliable estimates of who is winning, unlike the various tools used by TV companies, which are pure fiction (WinVizz etc)
Day 3 volume got pretty decent. I think the final totals were about 65m GBP traded in the UK - but would have to check. Paltry really - the Scotland v Netherlands T20 just finished traded 35m GBP.
I watched all of Day 1 (without TV comms) - here are some betting market-related facts.
SA was only the favourite to win the game for a few seconds as the Australian innings ended.
They are now back to about the same implied chance of winning as before the game started - around 35%.
The amount traded on this match, Day 1 , was 20m GBP, which for a test match is pretty good, but highlights the pecking order in gambling interest. The IPL final (40 overs), traded 150m GBP and the qualifier traded a record 260m GBP.
I think this will be over in 3-4 days. The bowlers did well, but it didn't work out for the batters this time. Maybe they can score on day 2, but the current expectation is about 178.
I found this fascinating, Mike, as I always do. Increased by my ignorance on the subject. Which market are you referring to? The UK market, I guess... given that the Indian market is 'informal'. Or is it?
I feel like Australia are underdogs now following the first day. It’s good to see cricket which puts pressure on batting though, after seeing too many T20 slogging contests over the past few months.
Hi Jonathan, I should have replied after day one but I'm a bit superstitious so didn't want to jinx anything. And the fact that I was finishing work two hours after each day's play and then travelling an hour back to beautiful Barnes, my home for the duration of the Test.
Great to hear your views Neil, and must be fantastic to have all that support for SA in London